Введение

medlit

Гигиена и санитария

Hygiene and Sanitation

0016-99002412-0650

Federal Scientific Center of Hygiene named after F.F. Erisman

10.47470/0016-9900-2019-98-11-1279-1284

medlit-454

Research Article

ЗДОРОВЬЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ

POPULATION HEALTH

Здоровье населения при экстремальных температурах: методика прогноза и результаты оценки

Human health in extreme temperatures: forecast and results of the assessment

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7811-7853

Григорьева

Елена Анатольевна

Grigorieva

Elena A.

Кандидат биол. наук, доцент, ведущий научный сотрудник лаборатория региональных социально-экономических систем ФГБУН «ИКАРП ДВО РАН», 679016, Биробиджан.

e-mail: eagrigor@yandex.ru

MD, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Leading researcher of the Laboratory of regional social-economic systems, Institute for Complex Analysis of Regional Problems of the Far Eastern Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, Birobidzhan, 679016, Russian Federation.

e-mail: eagrigor@yandex.ru

eagrigor@yandex.ru

Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт комплексного анализа региональных проблем Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук»Institute for Complex Analysis of Regional Problems of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

2019

14102020

981112791284

2020

Григорьева Е.А.

Grigorieva E.A.

Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://www.rjhas.ru/jour/article/view/454

Введение

Введение. В современных условиях значительных климатических изменений проблема влияния климата и погоды на здоровье человека приобретает особую актуальность для предупреждения и профилактики климатозависимых заболеваний.

Цель работы – апробация методики прогноза неблагоприятного влияния экстремально жарких погод на показатели здоровья человека на примере южной части Дальнего Востока России.

Материал и методы

Материал и методы. Выявление особенностей синоптических ситуаций проведено на основе метеоданных для 34 станций погоды на территории Хабаровского и Приморского краёв, Амурской и Еврейской автономной областей за период с 2000 по 2012 г. Сопряжённый анализ типов воздушных масс и рядов смертности населения выполнен для Хабаровска с использованием метеоданных и данных по общей смертности для всего населения и отдельно для возрастной группы от 65 лет и старше.

Результаты

Результаты. Обнаружено, что в тёплый сезон наиболее неблагоприятными для здоровья человека являются морские и континентальные тропические воздушные массы, формирующие так называемое «окно смертности». Для г. Хабаровска выявлено, что летом при прохождении морских жарких и влажных тропических воздушных масс (ВМ) смертность повышается на 12%, а в континентальных тропических ВМ – на 11%. Установлено, что в климатических условиях юга Дальнего Востока на рост смертности влияют температура воздуха, её суточная амплитуда и приведённая температура в дневные часы, учитывающая влажность воздуха и скорость ветра; более того, учитывается возможность привыкания в течение сезона к жарким погодам.

Заключение

Заключение. Разработана модель зависимости смертности населения от метеоусловий, которая может явиться основой для функционирования системы предупреждения влияния экстремально высоких температур на здоровье человека.

Introduction

Introduction. To prevent climate-dependent diseases, it is important to identify relationships in the system “Climate and weather – human vital activity”, which is especially important in present conditions of significant climate change.

The purpose of the work is to probate the methodology of forecasting the adverse impact of extremely hot weather on human health in the South of the Russian Far East.

Material and methods

Material and methods. Analysis of the synoptic situations was made on the basis of meteorological data for one observation time to the 34 weather stations in the South of the Russian Far East for 2000-2012. Data on the general mortality rate (the entire population and separately for the age group of 65 years and older) in Khabarovsk for 2000-2012. To determine the characteristics of synoptic situations and their possible impact on the human body analysis of air masses and mortality was carried out.

Results

Results. The “mortality window” for the hot period of the year is revealed: it is shown that marine and continental tropical air masses are the most unfavorable for human health. It is shown that in the summer mortality in Khabarovsk increases by 12% when in the area of action of extremely hot and humid tropical marine air masses, by 11% – in the continental tropical air masses.

Conclusion

Conclusion. The model of mortality forecast depending on weather conditions can be the basis for the development of the system for preventing the impact of extremely high temperatures on human health.

экстремально жаркие погодысмертностьпрогнозюг Дальнего Востока России

extremely hot weathermortalityforecastsouth of the Russian Far East

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.