medlitГигиена и санитарияHygiene and Sanitation0016-99002412-0650Federal Scientific Center of Hygiene named after F.F. Erisman10.47470/0016-9900-2020-99-5-455-459medlit-94Research ArticleГИГИЕНА ОКРУЖАЮЩЕЙ СРЕДЫENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENEАнализ эпидемической ситуации по клещевому вирусному энцефалиту в Республике Алтай в 2000–2017 гг.Analysis of the epidemic situation of tick-borne viral encephalitis in the Republic of Altai in 2000-2017https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1896-242XСалданИ. П.SaldanI. P.noemail@neicon.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4492-2050ШирокоступСергей ВасильевичShirokostupSergey V.

Кандидат мед. наук, доцент каф. эпидемиологии, микробиологии и вирусологии, ФГБОУ ВО Алтайский государственный медицинский университет Минздрава России, 656038, Барнаул.

e-mail: shirokostup@agmu.ru

MD, Ph.D., Associate Professor of the Department of Epidemiology, Microbiology and Virology, Altai State Medical University, Barnaul, 656038, Russian Federation.

e-mail: shirokostup@agmu.ru

shirokostup@agmu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9850-8870ЛукьяненкоН. В.LukyanenkoN. V.noemail@neicon.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3736-9381БаландовичБ. А.BalandovichB. A.noemail@neicon.ruФедеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Алтайский государственный медицинский университет» Министерства здравоохранения Российской ФедерацииAltai State Medical University202007072020995455459Copyright © Салдан И.П., Широкоступ С.В., Лукьяненко Н.В., Баландович Б.А., 20202020Салдан И.П., Широкоступ С.В., Лукьяненко Н.В., Баландович Б.А.Saldan I.P., Shirokostup S.V., Lukyanenko N.V., Balandovich B.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.rjhas.ru/jour/article/view/94Введение

Введение. Республика Алтай – одним из эндемичных по клещевому энцефалиту регионов Сибирского федерального округа с высотной горной поясностью с характерными ландшафтными и природно-климатическими условиями.

Целью настоящего исследования является проведение анализа эпидемиологической ситуации по клещевому энцефалиту в Республике Алтай в период с 2000 по 2017 г.

Материал и методы

Материал и методы. В проведении ретроспективного эпидемиологического исследования были использованы данные санитарно-эпидемиологической и медицинской служб за 2000–2017 гг. Статистическая обработка данных проводилась в программе Statistica 12.0, построение и анализ картограмм – в программе ArcGIS.

Результаты

Результаты. Средний многолетний показатель заболеваемости данной инфекцией в период с 2000 по 2017 г. составил 21,7±0,760/0000, что выше аналогичного показателя по СФО (10,1±0,230/0000) в 2,2 раза. Показатель количества пострадавших от присасывания клещей лиц в период с 2000 по 2017 г. возрос в 3,5 раза с 517,7 ± 15,950/0000 до 1810,5±28,620/0000 соответственно (p<0,001). Ранжирование по уровню средней многолетней заболеваемости позволило выделить три группы потенциального риска инфицирования населения.

Заключение

Заключение. Анализ эпидемической ситуации на основе факторного анализа и пространственного моделирования взаимного влияния факторов позволил определить необходимые объёмы превентивных мероприятий для снижения заболеваемости населения до заданного уровня. Подобный расчёт может быть применим в условиях эндемичного региона для обеспечения медицинской и экономической эффективности превентивных мероприятий.

Introduction

Introduction. The Republic of Altai is one of the regions of the Siberian Federal District endemic for tick-borne encephalitis with high altitude mountain belts with characteristic landscape and climatic conditions.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the epidemiological situation of tick-borne encephalitis in the Republic of Altai from 2000 to 2017.

Material and methods

Material and methods. In conducting a retrospective epidemiological study, data from sanitary-epidemiological and medical services for 2000-2017 were used. Statistical data processing was carried out with the software “Statistica 12.0”, the construction and analysis of cartograms - with the software ArcGIS.

Results

Results. The average long-term incidence rate of this infection in the period from 2000 to 2017 amounted to 21.7±0.760/0000, which is 2.2 times higher than the similar indучин for the SFO (10.1±0.230/0000). The number of persons affected by tick infestation in the period from 2000 to 2017 increased 3.5 times from 517.7±15.950/0000 to 1810.5±28.620/0000, respectively (p<0.001). Ranking on the level of the average long-term incidence allowed identifying three groups of the potential risk of infection of the population.

Discussion

Discussion. The factor analysis revealed the presence of an inverse correlation between the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis and the levels of seroprophylaxis (r=-0.93), acaricidal treatments (r=-0.95), vaccination (r=-0.10). The calculated levels of these factors were determined according to the results of the construction of spatial models of their mutual influences, capable of reducing the number of cases in the region to 6 per year.

Conclusion

Conclusion. An analysis of the epidemic situation based on factor analysis and spatial modeling of the mutual influence of factors made it possible to determine the necessary volumes of preventive measures to reduce the incidence of the population to a given level. Such a calculation may be applicable in an endemic region to ensure the medical and economic effectiveness of preventive measures.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.