medlitГигиена и санитарияHygiene and Sanitation0016-99002412-0650Federal Scientific Center of Hygiene named after F.F. Erisman10.47470/0016-9900-2017-96-11-1073-1078medlit-953Research ArticleЗДОРОВЬЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЯPOPULATION HEALTHВолны жары в мегаполисах и пороги их воздействия на смертность населенияHeat-waves in metropolises and thresholds of their impact on public healthРевичБорис АлександровичRevichBoris A.

Д-р мед. наук, проф. зав. лаб. прогнозирования качества окружающей среды и здоровья населения ФГБУ науки Института народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН, 117418, Москва.

e-mail: brevich@yandex.ru

MD, PhD, DSci., professor, head of the Laboratory for forecasting the quality of the environment and public health of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation. 

e-mail: brevich@yandex.ru

brevich@yandex.ruФГБУ «Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН»РоссияInstitute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of ScienceRussian Federation201721102020961110731078Copyright © Ревич Б.А., 20202020Ревич Б.А.Revich B.A.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.rjhas.ru/jour/article/view/953

Волны жары в мегаполисах становятся значительным фактором риска здоровью населения. Проведён анализ значений порогов жары и дана сравнительная оценка их воздействия на показатели смертности населения в городах различных климатических зон. Прирост дополнительной смертности при увеличении температуры воздуха на каждый 1 °С в европейских городах с умеренным климатом составляет 1,1 - 3,7%, в городах с субтропическим муссонным климатом — 2,8 - 3,0%. Волны жары приводят к более значительному числу дополнительных случаев смерти от всех причин, особенно в городах с умеренно континентальным климатом по сравнению с городами в других климатических зонах. В наибольшей степени прирост случаев дополнительной смертности значителен среди пожилого населения. Обосновано использование значений порогов жары как нового гигиенического показателя качества городской среды. Значение 98-го процентиля температур может быть принято в качестве ориентировочного показателя наступления волны жары, опасной для здоровья населения, при достижении которого необходимо проведение соответствующих профилактических мероприятий.

Heat waves have become an important health risk factor in megalopolises. Threshold temperatures for heat wave identification have been analyzed and heat wave impacts on the mortality rate in cities of different climatic zones have been compared. Relative increases in the mortality rate per each increase in the temperature by 10С in daily mean temperatures above the heat thresholds in European cities with moderate climate varied between 1.1% and 3.7% while those indices in cities with subtropical monsoon climate varied between 2.8% and 3.0%. Heat waves in cities with moderately continental climate led to greater gains in the all-causes mortality rate than heat waves in cities with other types of climate. Relative gains in the mortality rate were greater among the elderly persons. This paper provides a rationale for the using heat wave thresholds as new hygienic standard of environmental quality in cities. The authors proposed to use the 98th percentile of long-term historic distribution of daily mean temperatures as an identifier of dangerous for health heat waves. The authors recommend use this heat threshold for the activation of appropriate preventive measures to avoid heat-related deaths among urban population.

изменения климатаволны жарымегаполиссмертностьздоровьепрофилактические мероприятиярежимы труда и отдыхаclimate changeheat wavesmegalopolisesmortalitymorbidityhealthlabor and rest modepreventiveReferencesВторой оценочный доклад Росгидромета об изменениях климата и их последствиях на территории Российской Федерации, Техническое резюме. M.; 2014.The Second Assessment Report of Rosgidromet on climate change and their impact on the territory of the Russian Federation, the Technical Summary. Moscow; 2014. (in Russian)Агеев Ф.Т., Смирнова М.Д., Родненков О.В. Жара и сердечно-сосудистая система. М.: Практика; 2015.Ageev F.T., Smirnova M.D., Rodnenkov O.V. The Heat and the Cardiovascular System [Zhara i serdechno-sosudistaya sistema]. Moscow: Praktika; 2015. (in Russian)Baccini M., Biggeri A., Accetta G., Kosatsky T., Katsouyanni K., Analitis A., et. al. Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology. 2008; 19(5): 711-9.Baccini M., Biggeri A., Accetta G., Kosatsky T., Katsouyanni K., Analitis A., et. al. Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology. 2008; 19(5): 711-9.Leone M., D’Ippoliti D., De Sario M., Analitis A., Menne B., Katsouyanni K., et. al. A time series study on the effects of heat on mortality and evaluation of heterogeneity into European and Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities: results of EU CIRCE project. Environ. Health. 2013; 12: 55.Leone M., D’Ippoliti D., De Sario M., Analitis A., Menne B., Katsouyanni K., et. al. A time series study on the effects of heat on mortality and evaluation of heterogeneity into European and Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities: results of EU CIRCE project. Environ. Health. 2013; 12: 55.Ma W., Chen R., Kan H. Temperature-related mortality in 17 large Chinese cities: How heat and cold affect mortality in China. Environ. Res. 2014; 134: 127-33.Ma W., Chen R., Kan H. Temperature-related mortality in 17 large Chinese cities: How heat and cold affect mortality in China. Environ. Res. 2014; 134: 127-33.Zhang J., Li J.G., Huang C.R., Kan H.D. Impact of temperature on mortality in three major chinese cities. Biomed. Environ. Sci. 2014; 27(7): 485-94.Zhang J., Li J.G., Huang C.R., Kan H.D. Impact of temperature on mortality in three major chinese cities. Biomed. Environ. Sci. 2014; 27(7): 485-94.Уянаева А.И., Лян Н.А., Тупицына Ю.Ю., Чукина И.М., Максимова Г.А. Современные технологии оценки климата и погоды для оптимизации методов климатотерапии в комплексе санитарно-курортного лечения детей больных бронхиальной астмой. Вестник восстановительной медицины. 2015; 6(70): 53-6Uyanaeva A.I., Lyan N.A., Tupitsyna Yu.Yu., Chukina I.M., Maksimova G.A. Modern technology assessment of climate and weather information for optimizing the methods of climatotherapy in complex sanatorium treatment of children with bronchial asthma. Vestnik vosstanovitel’noy meditsiny. 2015; 6(70): 53-6. (in Russian)Shaposhnikov D., Revich B. Toward meta-analysis of impacts of heat and cold waves on mortality in Russian North. Urban Climate. 2016; 15: 16-24Shaposhnikov D., Revich B. Toward meta-analysis of impacts of heat and cold waves on mortality in Russian North. Urban Climate. 2016; 15: 16-24.Conti S., Meli P., Minelli G., Solimini R., Toccaceli V., Vichi M., et al. Epidemiologic study of mortality during the Summer 2003 heat wave in Italy. Environ. Res. 2005; 98(3): 390-9Conti S., Meli P., Minelli G., Solimini R., Toccaceli V., Vichi M., et al. Epidemiologic study of mortality during the Summer 2003 heat wave in Italy. Environ. Res. 2005; 98(3): 390-9.Ревич Б.А., Шапошников Д.В., Галкин В.Т., Крылов С.А., Черткова А.Б Воздействие высоких температур атмосферного воздуха на здоровье населения в Твери. Гигиена и санитария. 2005; (2): 20-4.Revich B.A., Shaposhnikov D.A., Galkin V.Т., Krylov S.A., Chertkova A.B. Impact of high ambient air temperatures on human health in Tver. Gigiena i sanitariya. 2005; (2): 20-4. (in Russian)Ревич Б.А., Шапошников Д.А., Семутникова Е.Г. Климатические условия и качество атмосферного воздуха как факторы риска смертности населения Москвы в 2000-2006 гг. Медицина труда и промышленная экология. 2008; (7): 29-35.Revich B.A., Shaposhnikov D.A., Semutnikova E.G. Climate conditions and ambient air quality as risk factors for mortality in Moscow. Meditsina truda i promyshlennaya ekologiya. 2008; (7): 29-35. (in Russian)Shaposhnikov D., Revich B., Bellander T., Bedada G.B., Bottai M., Kharkova T., et. al. Mortality related to interactions between heat wave and wildfire air pollution during the summer of 2010 in Moscow. Epidemiology. 2014; 25: 359-64Shaposhnikov D., Revich B., Bellander T., Bedada G.B., Bottai M., Kharkova T., et. al. Mortality related to interactions between heat wave and wildfire air pollution during the summer of 2010 in Moscow. Epidemiology. 2014; 25: 359-64.Ревич Б.А. Волны жары, качество атмосферного воздуха и смертность населения Европейской части России летом 2010 года: результаты предварительной оценки. Экология человека. 2011; (7): 3-9.Revich B.А. Heat-wave, air quality and mortality in European Russia in summer 2010: preliminary assessment. Ekologiya cheloveka. 2011; (7): 3-9. (in Russian)Бойцов С.А., Кузнецов А.С., Лукьянов М.М., Шальнова С.А. Деев А.Д. Влияние аномально высоких температур и загрязнённости воздуха на смертность населения Москвы и возможности прогнозирования смертности с помощью моделей линейного регрессионого анализа. Профилактическая медицина. 2013; (6): 63-70.Boytsov S.A., Kuznetsov A.S., Luk’yanov M.M., Shal’nova S.A. Deev A.D. The impact of abnormally high temperatures and ambient air pollution during summer months on mortality rates in the Moscow population and the possibilities of death prediction using linear regression analysis models. Profilakticheskaya meditsina. 2013; (6): 63-70. (in Russian)Бойцов С.А., Лукьянов М.М., Деев А.Д., Кляшторный В.Г., Иваненко А.В., Волкова Н.С. и др. Влияние экологических факторов на смертность населения Москвы: возможности рисков и прогнозирования. Российский кардиологический журнал. 2016; (6): 34-40.Boytsov S.A., Luk’yanov M.M., Deev A.D., Klyashtornyy V.G., Ivanenko A.V., Volkova N.S., et al. The influence of ecological risk factors on mortality in Moscow population. Risk evaluation and prediction. Rossiyskiy kardiologicheskiy zhurnal. 2016; (6): 34-40. (in Russian)Чубарова Н.Е., Незваль Е.И., Беликов И.Б., Горбаренко Е.В., Еремина И.Д., Жданова Е.Ю. и др. Климатические и экологические характеристики московского мегаполиса за 60 лет по данным Метеорологической обсерватории МГУ. Метеорология и гидрология.2014; (9): 49-63.Chubarova N.E., Nezval’ E.I., Belikov I.B., Gorbarenko E.V., Eremina I.D., Zhdanova E.Yu., et. al. Climatic and environmental characteristics of Moscow megalopolis according to the data of the Moscow State University Meteorological Observatory over 60 years. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya.2014; (9): 49-63. (in Russian)Shaposhnikov D., Revich В., Meleshko Н., Govorkova V., Pavlova T. Climate change may reduce annual temperature-dependent mortality in Subarctic: a case-study of Archangelsk, Russia Federation. Environ. Nat. Resour. Res. 2011; (1): 75-91.Shaposhnikov D., Revich В., Meleshko Н., Govorkova V., Pavlova T. Climate change may reduce annual temperature-dependent mortality in Subarctic: a case-study of Archangelsk, Russia Federation. Environ. Nat. Resour. Res. 2011; (1): 75-91.Revich B.A., Shaposnikov D.A., Podol’naya M.A., Khor’kova T.L., Kvasha E.A. Heat waves on Southern Cities of European Russia as a Risk Factor for Premature Mortality. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 2015; 26(2): 142-50.Revich B.A., Shaposnikov D.A., Podol’naya M.A., Khor’kova T.L., Kvasha E.A. Heat waves on Southern Cities of European Russia as a Risk Factor for Premature Mortality. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 2015; 26(2): 142-50.Laadi K., Zeghnoun A., Dousset B., Bretin P., Vandentorren S., Giraudet E., et al. The impact of heat islands on mortality in Paris during the August 2003 heat waves. Environ. Health Perspect. 2012; 120(2): 254-9.Laadi K., Zeghnoun A., Dousset B., Bretin P., Vandentorren S., Giraudet E., et al. The impact of heat islands on mortality in Paris during the August 2003 heat waves. Environ. Health Perspect. 2012; 120(2): 254-9.Механтьев И.И., Пичужкина Н.М., Массайлова Л.А. Волны жары и смертность населения г. Воронежа. Гигиена и санитария. 2013; (6): 85-6Mekhant’ev I.I., Pichuzhkina N.M., Massaylova L.A. Heatwaves and population die off in the Voronezh city. Gigiena i sanitariya. 2013; (6): 85-6. (in Russian)Grjibovski A., Nugralieva N., Kosbayeva A., Sharbakov A., Seysembekov T., Menne B. Effect of High Temperatures on Daily Counts of Mortality from Diseases of Circulatory System in Astana, Kazakhstan. Medicina (Kaunas). 2012; 48(12): 640-6.Grjibovski A., Nugralieva N., Kosbayeva A., Sharbakov A., Seysembekov T., Menne B. Effect of High Temperatures on Daily Counts of Mortality from Diseases of Circulatory System in Astana, Kazakhstan. Medicina (Kaunas). 2012; 48(12): 640-6.Revich B., Shaposhnikov D. Excess mortality during heat waves and соld spells in Moscow, Russia. Occup. Environ. Med. 2008; 65: 691-6.Revich B., Shaposhnikov D. Excess mortality during heat waves and соld spells in Moscow, Russia. Occup. Environ. Med. 2008; 65: 691-6.Варакина Ж.Л., Юрасова Е.Д., Ревич Б.А., Шапошников Д.А., Вязьмин А.М. Оценка влияния температуры воздуха на смертность населения Архангельска в 1999-2008 годах. Экология человека. 2011; (6): 28-36Varakina Zh.L., Yurasova E.D., Revich B.A., Shaposhnikov D.A., Vyaz’min A.M. Air temperature impact on mortality in Arkhangelsk in 1999-2008. Ekologiya cheloveka. 2011; (6): 28-36. (in Russian)Revich, B., Shaposhnikov D. Extreme temperature episodes and mortality in Yakutsk, East Siberia. Rural. Remote Health. 2010; 10(2): 1338.Revich, B., Shaposhnikov D. Extreme temperature episodes and mortality in Yakutsk, East Siberia. Rural. Remote Health. 2010; 10(2): 1338.Tian Z., Li S., Zhang J., Guo Y. The Characteristic of Heat Wave Effects on Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Beijing, China: A Time Series Study. PloS One. 2013; 8(9): e77321.Tian Z., Li S., Zhang J., Guo Y. The Characteristic of Heat Wave Effects on Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Beijing, China: A Time Series Study. PloS One. 2013; 8(9): e77321.Petkova E., Gasparrini A., Kinney P. Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century. Environment. 2014; 25(4): 554-60.Petkova E., Gasparrini A., Kinney P. Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century. Environment. 2014; 25(4): 554-60.Matte T.D., Lane K., Ito K. Excess mortality attributable to extreme heat in New York City, 1997-2013. Health Secur. 2016; 14(2): 64-70.Matte T.D., Lane K., Ito K. Excess mortality attributable to extreme heat in New York City, 1997-2013. Health Secur. 2016; 14(2): 64-70.Madrigano J., Ito K., Jonhson S., Kinney P.L., Matte T. A case-only study of vulnerability to heat wave-related mortality in New York (200-2011). Environ. Heath Perspect. 2015; 123(7): 672-8.Madrigano J., Ito K., Jonhson S., Kinney P.L., Matte T. A case-only study of vulnerability to heat wave-related mortality in New York (200-2011). Environ. Heath Perspect. 2015; 123(7): 672-8.Son J.Y., Gouveia N., Bravo M.A., de Freitas C.U., Bell M.L. The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Int. J Biometeorology. 2016; 60(1): 113-21.Son J.Y., Gouveia N., Bravo M.A., de Freitas C.U., Bell M.L. The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Int. J Biometeorology. 2016; 60(1): 113-21.Lee W.K., Lee H.A., Lim Y.H., Park H. Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea. Int. J. Biometeorology. 2016; 60(5): 719-26.Lee W.K., Lee H.A., Lim Y.H., Park H. Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea. Int. J. Biometeorology. 2016; 60(5): 719-26.Heo S., Lee E., Kwon B.Y., Lee S., Jo K.H., Kim J. Long-term changes in the heat-mortality relationship according to heterogeneous regional climate: a time-series study in South Korea. British Medicine J. Open. 2016; (6): e011786.Heo S., Lee E., Kwon B.Y., Lee S., Jo K.H., Kim J. Long-term changes in the heat-mortality relationship according to heterogeneous regional climate: a time-series study in South Korea. British Medicine J. Open. 2016; (6): e011786.Chen K., Huang L., Zhou L., Zongwei M., Jun B, Tiantian L. Spatial analysis of the effect of the 2010 heat wave on stroke mortality in Nanjing, China. Sci. Rep. 2015; (5): 1-10.Chen K., Huang L., Zhou L., Zongwei M., Jun B, Tiantian L. Spatial analysis of the effect of the 2010 heat wave on stroke mortality in Nanjing, China. Sci. Rep. 2015; (5): 1-10.Yang J., Liu H.Z., Ou C.Q., Lin G.Z., Ding Y., et al. Impact of heat wave in 2005 on mortality in on Guangzhou, China. Biomed. Environ. Sci. 2013; 26(8): 647-54.Yang J., Liu H.Z., Ou C.Q., Lin G.Z., Ding Y., et al. Impact of heat wave in 2005 on mortality in on Guangzhou, China. Biomed. Environ. Sci. 2013; 26(8): 647-54.Zhang Y., Li C., Feng R. The short-term effect of ambient temperature on mortality in Wuhan, China: A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. 2016; 13(7): E722.Zhang Y., Li C., Feng R. The short-term effect of ambient temperature on mortality in Wuhan, China: A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. 2016; 13(7): E722.Григорьева Е.А. Волны тепла в Хабаровске и здоровье населения. Известия Самарского научного центра РАН. 2014; 5(2): 843-6.Grigor’eva E.A. Heat waves in Khabarovsk and health of the population. Izvestiya Samarskogo nauchnogo tsentra RAN. 2014; 5(2): 843-6. (in Russian)Порфирьев Б.Н. Экономическая оценка людских потерь в результате чрезвычайных ситуаций. Вопросы экономики. 2013; (1): 46-68.Porfir’ev B.N. Economic assessment of casualties during emergency situations. Voprosy ekonomiki. 2013; (1): 46-68. (in Russian)

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.