The impact of environmental factors on excess mortality in industrial centers during the period of COVID-19

Introduction. The mortality rate in the population is the most important medical and demographic indicator considered as a result of the multifactorial influence of the living environment.

The aim of the study. To assess the influence of risk-modifying environmental factors on excess mortality in the adult population of industrial centers over the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Materials and methods. The studies were conducted in the industrial centers of Eastern Siberia. To estimate excess mortality, daily data on mortality from all causes during the first year of the pandemic and the ten previous years were used. Adaptive exponential smoothing models and autoregressive integrated moving average models were used. The information content of factors (I) is assessed using the Kullback measure.

Results. During the first year of the pandemic, the informativeness of environmental factors for all causes of excess mortality is lower than for causes unrelated to COVID-19 (I = 0.11–0.23, versus I = 0.26–0.61). For excess mortality unrelated to COVID-19, the following factors are more significant: “accumulated” chronic diseases, inhalation exposure to irritants, and availability of healthcare resources.

Limitations. The analysis of excess mortality of the population was carried out using the example of the first year of the pandemic in one region.

Conclusion. Excess mortality can be reduced based on a systemic analysis of dependencies using a set of mathematical and statistical methods. The significance of environmental factors during the pandemic is different for all causes of excess mortality and for causes unrelated to coronavirus infection.

Compliance with ethical standards. The study does not require the submission of a biomedical ethics committee opinion or other documents.

Contribution:
Efimova N.V. – the concept and design of the study, processing of material, writing text, editing;
Grzhibovsky A.M. – the concept and design of the study, mathematical modelling, writing text, editing;
Rukavishnikov V.S. – study concept and design, editing;
Mylnikova I.V. – collection and processing of material, statistical processing, writing text;
Kriger E.A. – statistical analysis, mathematical modelling.
All authors are responsible for the integrity of all parts of the manuscript and approval of the manuscript final version.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Funding. The study had no sponsorship.

Received: May 22, 2025 / Accepted: June 26, 2025 / Published: October 20, 2025

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