Risks for oncological pathology in territories of the location of carcinogenic enterprises

Introduction. The problem of malignant neoplasms is particularly pressing for industrial cities, whose populations are exposed to air pollution by numerous carcinogens.

The aim. To assess the potential and realized risk of developing malignant neoplasms associated with chemical exposure to carcinogens for the population of industrial centers.

Materials and Methods. Data from laboratory air quality monitoring in industrial cities for 1991–2024 were used to assess the potential risk. The realized carcinogenic risk associated with air pollution was estimated by calculating the relative risk. Indices from areas with low levels of exposure to carcinogens were selected as background values.

Results. Individual carcinogenic risk is assessed as unacceptable for the population; the highest levels (more than 1E–04) are typical for Irkutsk, Bratsk, Shelekhov, and Angarsk. The population risk rank order depends not only on population size but also the composition of pollutants. The incidence rate in the Irkutsk region is 1.2 times higher than the Russian Federation average, and the mortality rate is 1.3 times higher. The highest RR incidence rates were observed in cities with accumulated damage from previous activities and in cities with chemical industry enterprises.

Limitations. The specific features of malignant neoplasms during the COVID-19 pandemic are not considered. Personalized risk factors are not taken into account.

Conclusion. About 65% of city residents are exposed to unacceptable carcinogenic risk. Industrial centers that house carcinogenically hazardous enterprises, both currently and in the past, have the highest rates of cancer incidence and mortality.

Compliance with ethical standards. The study does not require the submission of a biomedical ethics committee opinion or other documents.

Contribution:
Efimova N.V. – the concept and design of the study, processing of material, writing text, editing;
Rukavishnikov V.S. – research concept, writing of the text;
Mylnikova I.V. – collection and processing of material, statistical processing, writing text;
Bobkova E.V. – collection of material and statistical processing, writing of text.
All authors are responsible for the integrity of all parts of the manuscript and approval of the manuscript final version.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Funding. The study had no sponsorship.

Received: September 24, 2025 / Accepted: October 15, 2025 / Published: November 14, 2025

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